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Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday cut its growth forecasts for developing Asia for 2022 and 2023 amid mounting risks from increased central bank monetary tightening, the fallout from the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 lockdowns in China.
The ADB now expects the area’s combined economy, which includes China and India, to grow 4.3% this year, after previously trimming the forecast to 4.6% in July from 5.2% in April.
For 2023, the ADB expects the region’s economy to expand 4.9%, slower than the April and July forecasts of 5.3% and 5.2%, respectively.
China’s economy will likely expand 3.3% this year, a further step down after previously trimming the forecast to 4.0% from 5.0% in April, and the economy will grow 4.5% next year, slower than a previous estimate of 4.8%, said the bank.
The outlook for the sub-regions this year remained mixed, with Southeast Asia and Central Asia expected to grow faster than previously projected at 5.1% and 3.9%, respectively.
The ADB, however, kept its growth forecast for South Asia at 6.5%, despite a lower growth estimate for India and an economic crisis in Sri Lanka.
The bank also raised its inflation forecasts in the region, as supply disruptions continue to boost food and fuel prices. Average inflation in developing Asia this year is now expected to hit 4.5%, up from April and July forecasts of 3.7% and 4.2%, respectively. For 2023, inflation is seen hitting 4.0%, compared with projections of 3.1% in April and 3.5% in July.