On the afternoon of July 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to present the agricultural and rural economic performance for the first half of the year. In response to how to ensure stable pig production, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs provided a clear answer.
Huang Baoxu, Director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, stated that pork accounts for around 60% of China’s meat production and consumption. Therefore, “when the pig industry is stable, the overall livestock sector remains stable.” In earlier periods, agricultural and rural departments at all levels took regulatory measures such as timely issuing early warnings of overcapacity and guiding leading enterprises to orderly reduce production capacity. Since May last year, pig farming has remained profitable for 14 consecutive months.
Huang pointed out that, in view of the recent downward pressure on pig prices, the Ministry has already released market warning information in advance, guiding leading enterprises to reasonably reduce capacity and control the pace of slaughter.
According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in June, the national stock of medium-to-large pigs over 5 months old decreased by 0.8% compared to the previous month. This indicates that the number of pigs slaughtered in July and August will decline, which is conducive to price stabilization and farming profitability. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of the second quarter, the national stock of breeding sows was 40.43 million, which is 103.7% of the normal stock level of 39 million, still at the upper limit of the green and reasonable capacity adjustment zone.
At the press conference, Huang Baoxu said that in the next step, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will focus on two key tasks to promote stable development of pig production.
“First is capacity adjustment. We will increase the frequency of market warning information releases, guide orderly slaughtering, accelerate the elimination of low-yielding sows and weak piglets, and adaptively adjust capacity to promote supply-demand balance. Second is policy stabilization. We will ensure that local governments fulfill their responsibilities for stabilizing pig production and prices, optimize pig production capacity control measures, strengthen the normalized prevention and control of African swine fever, and firmly safeguard the bottom line of preventing regional major animal epidemics,” said Huang.
Looking ahead, analysts believe that pig prices may moderately rebound, but the possibility of a sharp increase is low.
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and chief analyst of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ pork industry chain monitoring and early warning system, recently told China News Finance that pig prices may experience seasonal fluctuations and a moderate rebound in the second half of this year, but a sharp increase is unlikely. Overall, prices are expected to rise moderately within a narrow range on a seasonal basis.
Hualian Futures also stated in its research report that current pig production capacity remains sufficient, and the pressure of pig slaughter will remain high in the later period. The number of newborn piglets is also higher than the same period last year. Unless there is a significant increase in pork consumption, the room for pig price increases before September 2025 may be limited.