News that the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates triggered a sharp rally in China’s A-share nonferrous metals sector. Analysts and listed companies suggest the impact may be more sentiment-driven than fundamental, as many Chinese mining companies operating in the DRC mainly produce refined products which are not covered by the ban. While the measure reinforces concerns over long-term copper and cobalt supply constraints, near-term supply shortages may remain manageable due to existing domestic processing capacity, inventory flows, and alternative supply sources.
On August 7, cobalt-related stocks in China’s A-share market rallied sharply across the board. By the close, Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) rose 8.53% to 36.79 yuan after briefly gaining more than 10% intraday, Ganzhou Tengyuan Cobalt New Material (301219.SZ) advanced 5.86% to 50.06 yuan; and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) climbed 6.3% to 44.01 yuan. Copper producers also saw strong gains, with Jiangxi Copper (600362.SH) gained 7.20% to 49.58 yuan and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630.SZ) rising 5.94%.
According to reports on August 6, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government has imposed a ban on copper and cobalt concentrate exports, while intensifying efforts to promote domestic mineral processing and capture greater value from its natural resources.
Internationally, copper prices continued their upward momentum, with the three-month LME copper contract extending gains from August 6. During trading on August 7, prices reached an intraday high of $14,229.5 per tonne, moving closer to the closely watched $15,000-per-tonne milestone.
Market participants generally believe the impact of the export ban is driven more by sentiment than by fundamentals, suggesting the rally may be difficult to sustain.
Funeng Futures noted that the impact of the measure is limited, as the DRC had apreach imposed export quotas and exemption procedures for copper and cobalt concentrates, and the latest move is viewed as a reinforcement and tightening of existing restrictions rather than a sudden and complete export suspension.
Fubao Nonferrous Metals also highlighted that most copper concentrate produced in the DRC is already processed domestically, leaving only a limited volume available for export and making the policy’s impact largely symbolic.
Amid the sharp market reaction, several major Chinese nonferrous metals companies with operations in the DRC quickly issued statements to clarify the potential impact of the export ban.
Zijin Mining said that the products from its Kolwezi copper mine are blister copper and electrolytic copper, while those from the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine are anode plates and blister copper. These products are not included among the categories subject to export restrictions.
A person affiliated with CMOC Group said on WeChat Moments that the company’s products from its TFM and KFM mines in the DRC are cathode copper and cobalt hydroxide, rather than copper concentrates.
Huayou Cobalt said that it is not involved in concentrate exports and that Chinese companies are generally expected to be in a similar position.
A relevant person in charge at Hanrui Cobalt stated that the DRC had already tightened restrictions on concentrate exports previously and that the related measures would not affect the company.
Specifically, the export ban in question was signed on June 29 and regained market attention after being disclosed by the media on August 6. Previously, the DRC had introduced restrictions on copper and cobalt concentrate exports in 2013, 2019, and 2023. However, due to insufficient domestic smelting capacity, the country had repeatedly granted export exemptions to certain companies.
TF Securities noted that quota systems and disruptions at logistics points in the DRC have continued to fuel market concerns over the long-term availability of primary raw materials, however, shipments of previously accumulated intermediate products arrived in concentrated volumes during the first half of the year, gradually easing the tightness of freely available raw materials at ports.
Coupled with increasing cobalt supply from associated resources in Indonesia and rising domestic recycled cobalt output, the short-term raw material situation is characterized as “tight but not scarce.” Overall, amid weak off-season demand, cobalt prices are expected to trend lower, it noted.
Regarding copper, CITIC Securities believes that the ban will have a limited impact on the production and operations of Chinese copper companies. It noted that most Chinese-owned copper capacity in the DRC consists of hydrometallurgical projects, with products primarily being cathode copper. While some pyrometallurgical projects produce copper concentrate, the concentrate is also smelted locally into anode copper. Therefore, neither category of products is affected by the ban.
For China’s copper industry, a source from the copper mining sector noted that when copper smelting and processing companies establish facilities overseas, they reduce the amount of copper concentrate available for sale on the international market, and this intensifies competition among Chinese smelters for raw material procurement and puts downward pressure on copper treatment charges, creating some operational challenges for domestic smelters.
However, after processing, these copper products will continue to supply the international market, and the volumes involved remain limited, and therefore, the overall impact on China’s copper smelting industry is expected to be limited, said the source.
The global copper market is currently at a critical juncture, with frequent supply disruptions and declining inventories in some regions. The export ban could further amplify concerns over potential supply shortages.
Since last year, expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump would make decisions regarding import tariffs have led to large amounts of copper being shipped to the United States, causing copper inventories in LME warehouses to decline.
Recently, the rush to import copper into the U.S. has regained momentum. In July, LME copper inventories declined by a cumulative 79,375 tonnes, down 24.11% month-on-month, while SHFE copper inventories fell by 66,398 tonnes, nearly 49% month-on-month. Meanwhile, copper inventories on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) rose by nearly 50,000 tonnes in July, continuing to reach record highs. The price spread between COMEX and LME copper widened again to nearly $700 per tonne.
Goldman Sachs believes that the copper supply deficit outside the US could widen significantly, increasing from 60,000 tonnes to 640,000 tonnes, while inventory coverage falls below 10 days. Spot copper markets in regions outside the U.S. are becoming increasingly constrained, with copper inventories in Europe and Asia already approaching historically extreme lows.
Citigroup expects that, given stronger-than-expected mine disruptions, additional demand from artificial intelligence and the energy transition, and ongoing US tariff negotiations, supply flexibility will remain severely constrained. Over the next 6 to 12 months, LME copper prices could test the $15,000 per tonne level.