China’s economic data for May to remain moderate, credit demand still weak – CICC
DATA MACRO VIEWS & ANALYSIS
China’s economic data for May to remain moderate, credit demand still weak – CICC
DATA MACRO VIEWS & ANALYSIS

China’s economic data for May to remain moderate, credit demand still weak – CICC

 

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After a slowdown in April, China’s economic data for May is expected to remain moderate, with marginal improvement in endogenous driving forces and rebound in production, consumption, manufacturing investment, CPI, etc, while exogenous forces supported by policy and external demand weakening, such as infrastructure investment, exports, and PPI, CICC said in a research note.

Retail sales are expected to grow by about 14.5% in May from a year earlier, industrial output is expected to grow by 3.5% due to a high base, it estimated.

Export growth is expected to turn negative in May, falling by 1% from a year ago, compared with the 8.5% growth in April, due to pressure on external demand and a higher base, while imports are expected to decline 6% year over year, compared with a drop of 7.9% in April, with the trade surplus expected at $89.2 billion, according to the note.

China’s new bank loans are expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in May, largely in line with the level in the same period in 2021, but down by 490 billion yuan for the same period in 2022, the bank said. Given the high base, the year-on-year growth of M2, bank loans and total social financing is likely to slow to 12%, 11.8% and 9.9%, respectively, it said.