In the first half of this year, despite the adverse effects of the trade war initiated by the United States, China’s export value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.3 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024, demonstrating the resilience of the export sector against shocks.
Analysts pointed out that under the wavering U.S. tariff policies, enterprises accelerated “export rush” and “export diversion,” while U.S. companies replenished their inventories, and the Chinese government’s support for foreign trade enterprises jointly enhanced the resilience of China’s exports in the first half of the year.
They noted that entering the second half of the year, the external environment has become more complex, increasing uncertainties in global trade. Meanwhile, the China-U.S. tariff easing period is nearing its end, and the effects of “export rush” and “export diversion” may weaken, putting greater pressure on exports. Policies to stabilize growth and foreign trade will need to be further strengthened.
Data source: General Administration of Customs; Chart by Jiemian News
“The export growth rate in the first half exceeded market expectations. In fact, since the fourth quarter of 2024, China’s export growth rate has frequently significantly exceeded market expectations. On one hand, this is influenced by the ‘export rush’ factor, and on the other hand, the persistent decline in U.S. goods inventories likely led to restocking demand, which has been an important support for China’s exports,” said Zhang Chaoyue, senior macro analyst at Northeast Securities, to Jiemian News.
He pointed out that the decline in U.S. inventories usually leads wholesalers to restock about six months later. Since the first quarter of 2024, U.S. durable goods inventories have been continuously declining, driving accelerated U.S. production since the fourth quarter of 2024. The inventory-to-sales ratio for U.S. durable goods dropped from 1.81 in March 2024 to 1.67 in May 2025, while the year-on-year growth rate of U.S. industrial production rose from a low of -0.9% in November 2024 to 1.4% in April 2025. This confirms the recovery in U.S. restocking demand and corresponds to the resilience of China’s export growth.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, also told Jiemian News that China’s export resilience in the first half was obvious, largely due to the “export rush.” The global trade war initiated by the U.S. in April caused a pronounced “export rush” to the U.S. in the first quarter. In the second quarter, during the temporary suspension period of the U.S. global reciprocal tariffs, China’s trade diversion was significant, which effectively offset the global trade slowdown and the sharp decline in China’s exports to the U.S., pushing overall exports to maintain rapid growth.
Since February this year, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly raised tariffs on Chinese goods, with cumulative increases once reaching 145%. On May 12, China and the U.S. reached a phased economic and trade agreement in Geneva, with the U.S. agreeing to reduce tariffs on China to 30% within 90 days. Trade data from June showed a clear effect of the Geneva talks, with a significant narrowing in the decline of bilateral trade between China and the U.S. In June, China’s exports to the U.S. fell by 16.1% year-on-year, a decrease in the rate of decline by 18.4 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Wang Qing noted that the U.S. temporarily lowered tariffs on China by 115 percentage points, which led to the resumption of exports of some goods that had stopped shipping under the previously extremely high tariffs in June. This triggered a new wave of “export rush” to the U.S., significantly narrowing the year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. that month, and directly boosting the overall export growth rate by about 2.7 percentage points. However, U.S. tariffs on China remain at a very high level, with an effective tariff rate of about 41.3%, which is 30 percentage points higher than last year, resulting in a continued significant year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in June.
Outside the U.S., China’s exports to most major trading partners maintained high growth. In June, exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) grew 16.8% year-on-year, exports to the European Union grew 7.6%, exports to Africa grew 34.8%, exports to Japan grew 6.6%, and exports to India grew 9.4%.
Analysts said this indicates that the sharp decline in China’s exports to the U.S. is triggering trade diversion, with exporters actively developing markets outside the U.S.
Zhang Di, chief macro analyst at China Galaxy Securities, told Jiemian News that in June, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing in several Southeast Asian countries showed expansion, supporting the resilience of China’s exports to ASEAN. In addition, Vietnam’s exports grew 19.3% year-on-year in June, corresponding with China’s double-digit export growth to Vietnam, reflecting the high growth trend of China’s re-export trade to non-U.S. countries amid increasing external uncertainty.
Besides these factors, Wang Qing also mentioned that in the face of dramatic fluctuations in the external economic and trade environment in the first half, domestic policies to stabilize foreign trade were continuously introduced, greatly improving trade facilitation, optimizing the business environment at ports, and increasing support for foreign trade enterprises to help them expand diversified export markets. These measures have effectively enhanced the resilience of China’s exports to shocks.
Wang Lingjun, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs, said at a State Council press conference on Monday that in the first half, China’s exports to traditional markets such as the EU, Japan, and the UK grew steadily, and exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Central Asia, and Africa all saw double-digit growth. “China’s provision of production equipment and technology to emerging markets has promoted local production development and employment. Exports of machine tools to ASEAN, agricultural machinery to Central Asia, and textile machinery to Africa have all seen significant growth.”
Customs statistics show that in the first half of this year, ASEAN, the EU, and the U.S. were the top three export destinations. Among them, exports to ASEAN increased by 13.0% year-on-year, exports to the EU increased by 6.6%, and exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.9%.
Data source: General Administration of Customs; Chart by Jiemian News
From the perspective of export products, the innovation element is even more prominent. According to Wang Lingjun, in the first half of the year, China’s high-tech product exports measured in RMB grew 9.2% year-on-year, maintaining growth for nine consecutive months. Among these, exports of high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment all grew more than 20%, and exports of instruments and meters grew 14.7%. The promotion of technological self-reliance and strength has helped build brands, with the share of self-owned brands in China’s high-tech exports reaching 32.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
Analysts pointed out that overall, driven by the stage effect of China-U.S. tariff easing, China’s exports performed well in the second quarter. However, with the passage of a new U.S. fiscal expansion bill and recent tariff “ultimatums” issued by Trump to major trading partners, aiming to speed up the confirmation of final tariff rates, China’s exports may face significant downward risks in the second half of the year.
Recently, the U.S. announced a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and a 40% tariff on goods originating from third countries but re-exported to the U.S. via Vietnam, significantly increasing the cost of re-export through Vietnam and likely dampening the enthusiasm for re-export trade. In addition, against the backdrop of the reshaping of global trade and supply chain systems, some economies may follow the U.S. example, using trade friction to protect their own interests.
“The export situation in the second half of the year will gradually face more pressure than the first half,” said Zhang Di. “Trump wants to use tariffs on Vietnamese re-exports as a template to replicate a comprehensive blockade of China’s re-export trade across Southeast Asia, increasing uncertainty for exports in the second half.”
Wang Qing said that given the 90-day easing period stipulated by the Geneva joint statement, there will still be some “export rush” effects to the U.S. in July. However, as the global reciprocal tariff suspension period approaches its end and U.S. tariff policies cause a slowdown in global economic growth, overall external demand will weaken. This means that policies to stabilize growth and foreign trade will need to be further strengthened in the second half, with fiscal policies boosting consumption and investment, the central bank likely continuing to cut interest rates, and targeted financial support policies for struggling foreign trade enterprises expected to be introduced.
However, Zhang Chaoyue holds a different view. He believes that Trump’s tariff war may be more bark than bite, with a high probability of ending in a “TACO” scenario. TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” a term first coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong.
“In the second half of the year, with loose financial conditions in the U.S. and likely continued high growth in U.S. goods consumption, wholesale restocking will further support the resilience of China’s exports. We remain optimistic about China’s export prospects in the second half,” Zhang Chaoyue said.