A collapse in second-hand prices for its once-hot Labubu dolls and a stark drop in launch-day queues are sending a clear signal: the frenzied “blind box” boom that turned Pop Mart into a toy empire may be running out of steam.
As short-sellers pile in and the stock sinks 40% from this year’s high, investors are confronting the possibility that the company’s core appeal — artificial scarcity and collector mania — may not be sustainable.
On December 30, the stock price of Pop Mart (9992.HK) continued to decline on the Hong Kong exchange. As of 10:53 a.m. that day, the share price was at HK$191.6 per share, down 4.15%, with its total market capitalization falling below the HK$260 billion mark. Since hitting a high of HK$339.8 in late August, the stock has fallen by over 40%, wiping out over HK$200 billion in market value.
Amid the weak stock performance, bearish sentiment has accumulated. Data from Wind Information shows that on December 29, Pop Mart’s short-selling amount reached HK$304 million, with nearly 1.5 million shares sold short. The number of open short positions stood at 94.92 million shares, hitting the highest level of the year.
Behind the decline is a cooling off in the popularity of its core IP. On December 29, the phrase “Pop Mart begins 50%-off clearance sales” became a trending topic on Chinese social media Weibo. The second-hand prices of the once sky-high Labubu blind boxes have plunged.
Data from the Poison app shows that the average transaction price for a full box (14 pieces) of the Labubu 4th Generation has fallen from 1,916 yuan at the initial release to 1,088 yuan. On the Xianyu platform, the average transaction price for some styles in the past seven days is only 77.5 yuan, falling below the official retail price. Some resellers have also posted online stating they will “temporarily halt purchases of the Labubu series.”
As the heat of the core IP fades, lukewarm reception of new products and operational missteps have further intensified market concerns. On September 11, Pop Mart released the new “Sleepless Theatre Series” under its popular IP SKULLPANDA. Offline, only about 10 people were seen lining up, a stark contrast to the long queues of the past. Online sales showed a “roller coaster” trend: by 22:24 that night, about 93,000 units of the new blind boxes had been sold, but by 23:08, sales were only 809 units. Subsequently, sales climbed to over 3,000 units. The market speculates this may be due to a high return rate.
Cross-sector attempts have also fallen short of expectations. On September 12, Pop Mart’s jewelry brand POPOP officially launched its full-gold product series. Like the established brand Laopu Gold, POPOP also adopts a fixed-price model. However, staff at the POPOP Beijing Guomao store revealed that there was no scene of queuing or rush-buying on the launch day, and all full-gold series products were available in-store.
A live-streaming incident in November further triggered public controversy. The incident began when two staff members’ private conversation was inadvertently picked up during a live-streaming show by Pop Mart’s official account while promoting an IP peripheral product. They were heard complaining that a “79-yuan blind box keychain is too expensive,” sparking widespread discussion about “the reasonableness of Pop Mart’s product pricing,” further affecting brand reputation.
Deutsche Bank noted in its latest report that Pop Mart significantly increased its production capacity for Labubu from 10 million units in the first half of the year to a monthly average of 50 million units by year-end. The report warns that for trendy toy brands reliant on unique design and scarcity-driven appeal, large-scale mass production is often a precursor to waning popularity.
However, despite the subdued market sentiment, Pop Mart’s performance remains robust. Pop Mart’s total revenue for Q3 of 2025 surged by 245% to 250% year-on-year. Among this, revenue from China increased by 185% to 190% year-on-year, while overseas revenue surged by 365% to 370% year-on-year. In Q3, in terms of revenue performance across various channels in China, revenue from offline channels grew by 130% to 135% year-on-year, while revenue from online channels grew by 300% to 305% year-on-year.
China Merchants Securities noted in a report in late December that tracking data from third parties—such as second-hand prices on Q Island, app download volumes and search indices, and estimates of online transaction values—have issues with sample selection and interpretation.
For example, download volumes and search indices naturally weaken after a brand accumulates a certain level of awareness; user data is affected by scraping rules and differs from the company’s disclosed statistical basis; and changes in sales channels also limit the data’s reference value, it elaborated.
China Merchants Securities noted that due to the weakening marginal growth trend shown by third-party tracked high-frequency data, the market is concerned about severe fluctuations in the company’s performance and valuation alongside the IP lifecycle, leading to a significant adjustment in the stock price.
However, considering Pop Mart’s outstanding capabilities in global IP operation, the potential for distortion in third-party data that relies on sampling against the backdrop of multi-channel operations, and the company’s high flexibility in production scheduling, Pop Mart’s fashion trend risk is controllable, and it remain optimistic about the company’s future development and maintain a “Strongly Recommend” rating.