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The world’s oil demand is expected to hit a record high of 102.8 million barrels per day in July and the strong demand was forecast to lead to a supply shortfall of 1.8 million bpd in the second half of the year and to 600,000 bpd deficit in 2024, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
The bank maintained its forecast of a Brent oil futures target of $86 by the end of this year and said prices may rise to $93 in the second quarter of next year as supply shortages persist.
The prospects of China’s oil demand and expected further economic stimulus in the world’s top crude importer have played the biggest role in the oil price rally in July, it said.
In addition, oil demand outside China is holding up “far better” than most have feared, while the very aggressive OPEC+ cuts are leading to a deficit on the market, according to the bank.