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The current Israel-Gaza conflict is not expected to have an immediate significant impact on the oil market inventory, but the escalation will affect the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as the increase in oil production in the Saudi Kingdom, said Goldman Sachs in a note.
Goldman expeted Brent oil futures to rise to $100 per barrel in June 2024, while noting that the conflict has not affected the current global oil production.
It also noted that if Saudi Arabia’s oil production remains at 9 million barrels a day next year, Brent futures prices will rise to $104 a barrel by the end of 2024.
The conflict will raise tensions in the region again, leading to downside risks of Iran’s oil production, and if Iran cuts production by 100,000 barrels a day, the price of Brent futures will rise by $1 a barrel by the end of 2024, it said.