China to sustain moderate economic recovery in H2, growth to be 4% – 4.5% in 2020 – 2030 – UBS
MACRO VIEWS & ANALYSIS
China to sustain moderate economic recovery in H2, growth to be 4% – 4.5% in 2020 – 2030 – UBS
MACRO VIEWS & ANALYSIS

China to sustain moderate economic recovery in H2, growth to be 4% – 4.5% in 2020 – 2030 – UBS

 

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UBS maintained its forecast that China’s average economic growth will be between 4% and 4.5% during the period of 2020 – 2030, and that it’s rather unlikely for China to return to a brisk economic growth of 6% – 7%, said Wang Tao, Chief China Economist cum Head of Asia Economic Research at UBS.

China’s economic growth will still be faster than that of other economies in the region and remain the main driving force for global economic growth, she said, adding that the growth in the second half of the year is expected to sustain the moderate recovery trend, she said.

China’s debt has reached about 300% of its GDP, bringing challenges to the authorities, but due to high level of household savings, the government’s strict control over capital outflows and the support of large state-owned banks, large-scale defaults or economic recession will be unlikely, she said.

Regarding the real estate market, if property sales continue to decline in the next few months, the government is expected to introduced a series of supportive policies including lowering down payment ratio and the authority is likely to make evaluation after the Politburo meeting at the end of June, she said.