Global smartphone shipments to drop 6.5% in 2022, China to contribute nearly half of overall reduction – research
DATA VIEWS & ANALYSIS
Global smartphone shipments to drop 6.5% in 2022, China to contribute nearly half of overall reduction – research
DATA VIEWS & ANALYSIS

Global smartphone shipments to drop 6.5% in 2022, China to contribute nearly half of overall reduction – research

 

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Global shipments of smartphones are expected to decline 6.5% to 1.27 billion units in 2022 due to record-breaking inflation, geopolitical tensions, and other macroeconomic challenges that have significantly dampened consumer demand, according to latest estimates by IDC. That represents a reduction of three percentage points from previous projections, it said.

However, IDC expects the setback to be short term and the market to rebound in 2023 with 5.2% growth year over year and, in the long term, a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4%.

“The supply constraints pulling down on the market since last year have eased and the industry has shifted to a demand-constrained market. High inventory in channels and low demand with no signs of immediate recovery has OEMs panicking and cutting their orders drastically for 2022. The events of the last twelve months have shaved 150 million units off the market for 2022 from our forecast in the second quarter of 2021,” it said.

The most significant volume drop is coming from China, which is now forecast to decline by 12.5% or roughly 41 million units, contributing almost half of the overall reduction this year, IDC said. In contrast, developed markets like North America (USA and Canada) and Western Europe are forecast to do much better in 2022. The U.S. will be relatively flat at 0.3% growth year over year while the Canadian market will fare slightly better with 3.2% growth and only a slight 0.7% decline for Western Europe.

Average selling prices (ASPs) have grown 10% year over year in Q2 and are forecast to grow 6.3% for the full year. The premium segment ($800+) has proved resilient to the economic turmoil and has grown four percentage points in share to 16% of the total smartphone market and will continue to grow. This includes foldable devices, which is the fastest growing segment today and expected to increase 70% year over year in 2022 to reach 13.5 million units shipped.”