The Trump administration on April 2 announced reciprocal tariffs on global trade partners, with a 34% reciprocal tariff rate imposed on China.
According to calculations by Goldman Sachs, after excluding industries that are not subject to this tariff increase, the effective additional tariff rate on China stands at 26.3%, and adding this to the pre-existing tariffs, the total tariff rate China faces will reach 58%.
Some product categories are exempt from the newly imposed reciprocal tariffs, Goldman Sachs Chief China Economist Shan Hui noted.
For instance, energy products are excluded—not just for China but for all countries; recent tariff increases separately announced for steel, aluminum, automobiles, and auto parts are also not included in this round; and in addition, categories such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which are classified as critical imports, might be subject to new tariffs later but are not affected this time, Shan said.
Therefore, after excluding these sectors from the 34% figure, the actual rate comes to 26.3%, he said.
According to the White House’s executive order, the newly imposed tariffs do not apply to products already covered by industry-specific tariffs, including those yet to be announced. Goldman estimates that products in these exempted industries account for roughly one-third of all global industry products.
The bank also calculated the effective additional tariff rates imposed on other countries after excluding exempted industries. The 20% reciprocal tariff on the European Union results in an effective additional tariff rate of 10.8%. For Japan, the 24% reciprocal tariff translates to an effective rate of 11.7%. Vietnam, facing a 46% reciprocal tariff, will see an effective rate of 40.4%.
Goldman estimates that the total U.S. tariff rate on China has now risen to 58.4%, which results from aggregating several components: the effective tariff rate of 10.9% as of the end of 2024 (mainly from tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term), the additional 20% tariff specifically imposed on China in 2025 (which was initially 10% but later raised to 20%), the recently announced global steel and aluminum tariffs adding 0.5%, the global automobile and auto parts tariffs adding 0.7%, and the latest reciprocal tariff increase contributing 26.3%.
Explaining the 10.9% effective tariff rate as of the end of 2024, Shan noted that although high tariffs were imposed in 2018 and 2019—for instance, some sectors faced a 25% tariff—many products, such as those categorized as 4-b goods (primarily consumer end products), were not affected.
In addition, over the past five years, import patterns have shifted, with fewer imports of tariffed products and more imports of untaxed goods. When calculating the weighted average of Trump-era tariffs, the effective rate by the end of 2024 stands at 10.9%, Shan said.
Goldman also estimates that the total U.S. tariff rate on the EU has risen to 14.9%, which includes the 1.4% effective tariff rate as of the end of 2024, the global steel and aluminum tariffs (adding 0.6%), the global automobile and auto parts tariffs (adding 2.1%), and the latest reciprocal tariff increase contributing 10.8%.
For Japan, the total U.S. tariff rate has increased to 20.0%. This includes the 1.7% effective tariff rate as of the end of 2024, the global steel and aluminum tariffs (adding 0.7%), the global automobile and auto parts tariffs (adding 7.6%), and the latest reciprocal tariff increase of 11.7%.
Vietnam’s total U.S. tariff rate has surged to 46.7%, comprising the 4.1% effective tariff rate as of the end of 2024, the global steel and aluminum tariffs (adding 0.4%), the global automobile and auto parts tariffs (adding 5.9%), and the latest reciprocal tariff increase of 40.4%.
