On July 17, Hong Kong stocks in the new consumer sector continued to decline, with high-flying stock Pop Mart (09992.HK) sliding as much as nearly 5% to hit a low of HK$240.4 at one point before closing 0.87% down at HK$250.4.
On July 15, Pop Mart announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it expects its revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025 to surge by no less than 200% year-on-year; it also expects the profit excluding unrealized gains or losses from changes in fair value of financial instruments not yet accounted for to increase by no less than 350% year-on-year.
The company’s board attributed the performance mainly to three reasons: first, the Pop Mart brand and its IPs have gained further recognition in global markets, and the diversification of product categories has driven the Group’s revenue growth, with all regional markets achieving sustained rapid revenue growth; second, the proportion of overseas revenue continues to increase, which positively impacts both gross profit and profit, while economies of scale significantly boost profit; third, continuous optimization of product costs, enhanced expense control, and improved profitability.
Notably, on July 16, the first trading day after Pop Mart released its positive earnings forecast announcement, the short-selling volume surged to 2.4956 million shares, a more than sixfold increase from 342,000 shares on the previous trading day (July 15), marking the highest level since June 20.
In its latest research report, Goldman Sachs noted that although Pop Mart’s performance surpassed the general expectations of sell-side analysts, it may only “roughly meet” the very high expectations that buy-side investors had already raised.
JPMorgan noted that the net profit growth forecast by Pop Mart actually falls at the lower end of the prior buy-side expectation range of RMB 4.5 billion – RMB 5.5 billion.
In fact, Pop Mart’s performance had exploded in Q1 this year. On April 22, Pop Mart announced that its revenue for Q1 2025 surged by 165%-170% year-on-year, including a 95%-100% increase in revenue from China and a 475%-480% increase overseas. Regarding overseas revenue by region, Asia-Pacific (excluding China) grew by 345%-350% year-on-year, the Americas by 895%-900%, and Europe by 600%-605%.
At the 2024 annual results briefing held in April, Pop Mart’s Chairman and CEO Wang Ning said that the company’s performance growth in 2024 exceeded expectations, mainly due to the successful implementation of the internationalization strategy, which has become the company’s “second curve.”
Looking ahead, the company will continue to deepen its presence in overseas markets and build a group strategy centered around IP, thereby accelerating its performance growth.
For 2025, the management is confident that based on the high base of 2024, it will achieve over 50% year-on-year sales growth and over 100% year-on-year growth in overseas sales, aiming to reach total sales of RMB 20 billion and overseas sales exceeding RMB 10 billion.
Notably, Pop Mart’s stock price has surged over 1000% cumulatively from January 2, 2024, to the present, with nearly 200% cumulative gains so far in 2025.