China’s retail sales likely grew at faster pace in July driven by strong demand in summer vacation – analysts
DATA MACRO VIEWS & ANALYSIS
China’s retail sales likely grew at faster pace in July driven by strong demand in summer vacation – analysts
DATA MACRO VIEWS & ANALYSIS

China’s retail sales likely grew at faster pace in July driven by strong demand in summer vacation – analysts

 

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China’s retail sales are expected to have grown by 5.2% in July from a year earlier,  picking up by 2.1 percentage points from the growth June, according to the average estimate by economists at 15 domestic and overseas institutions surveyed by Yuan Talks. 

The economists expect retail sale to grow by 2.8%% – 10.8% in July from a year earlier. 

BOC International said that China’s retail sales likely grew by 10.8% in July from a year earlier, the highest estimates among the analysts.

Offline service consumption was robust in July, with high-frequency mobility data such as people’s migration, domestic passenger flights, etc, hitting historic highs, hotel occupancy hitting a new high since 2020, movie box office revenue exceeding 8 billion yuan and rising over 40% from the previous record seen in July 2018, CICC said in a note .

The robust offline activities boosted cultural, tourism and catering consumption and also helped lift consumption of clothing, cosmetics and jewellery, etc, it said.

However, due to the high base last year, China retail sales of passenger cars fell by 4.8% in July from a year ago, according to the China Passenger Car Association, while weekly home appliance sales in July all fell from a year earlier, according to AVC data, indicating that China’s consumption recovery was structural, said CICC. The bank expects China’s retail sales to grow by about 5.5% in July from a year ago.

Huachuang Securities said that China’s retail sales likely grew by 4.5% in July from a year ago. According to China’s official non-manufacturing PMI, activities in China’s civil aviation, hospitality, catering, cultural and entertainment and tourism industries picked up in July from the previous month, indicating that consumption related to catering, oil and offline shopping likely picked up in July, it said.